The book turns over fast.
So do the economics.
BNPL compresses the credit lifecycle into months rather than years. With rapid amortization, today's acquisition and merchant mix decisions become tomorrow's portfolio performance almost instantly.
The Portfolio Event
Mix is destiny.
Because cohorts are so short-lived, you cannot rely on a seasoned back-book to absorb new acquisition mistakes.
Every wave of originations brings its own merchant economics (MDR), average ticket sizes, and first-payment default (FPD) hazard rates. A shift in channel mix or merchant concentration immediately and radically changes the unit economics of the entire active portfolio.
The Decision
Volume growth can destroy MDR coverage.
Relaxing credit in the checkout flow to boost GMV conversion is a common lever. But the proposition is not simply "reduce losses." You must evaluate whether the Merchant Discount Rate (MDR) revenue can absorb the incremental First-Payment Defaults (FPD).
Portfolio Economics
Unit economics, exposed.
Gross Merchandise Value is a vanity metric. Cohort Brain models the exact unit economics of every BNPL vintage.
We capture the upfront Merchant Discount Rate (MDR) revenue, subtract the cost of funds across the short tenor, absorb the front-loaded credit losses, and account for late fees. The result is the definitive net contribution of the cohort, modeled directly from behavioral hazard rates rather than high-level averages.
Built on the Cohort Brain platform.
Your BNPL modeling runs on the same governed OS as your credit card and term loan portfolios. Evaluate macroeconomic sensitivities, enforce guardrails like MDR coverage ratios, and present unified corporate forecasts.
Explore the operating system →See your next portfolio decision
before you make it.
A focused working session on your portfolio — cards, BNPL, term loans, mortgages or deposits. No pitch deck. No sequence.