The contract is known.
The outcome isn't.
A booked cohort starts with a defined principal, rate, and amortization schedule. What ultimately matters is how prepayment velocity and credit behavior reshape that schedule into realized cash flows over time.
The Portfolio Event
Age dictates behavior.
A newly originated cohort should not be treated like a seasoned cohort simply because they share product or risk attributes. Behavior evolves precisely with age.
Cohort Brain models the underlying hazard rates across Months on Book (MOB). Losses tend to peak as a cohort hits early maturity, while prepayment velocity accelerates as the cohort seasons and borrower equity builds. Forecasting requires mapping these specific curves against the remaining term, rather than applying flat annualized assumptions.
The Decision
Growth, pricing, and risk are not independent variables.
Changing credit policy or acquisition mix doesn't simply alter the top line. It restructures the fundamental yield and loss profile of the booked vintage.
Portfolio Economics
Booked yield is not realized yield.
A 9.5% APR loan does not return 9.5% to the portfolio. Prepayments clip the interest duration, funding consumes the spread, and credit losses carve out the principal.
Cohort Brain bridges the gap between the gross contractual promise and the actual realized portfolio economics. By simulating the full lifecycle of the vintage, you understand the definitive economic return of the cohort, fully adjusted for its specific behavior and the macroeconomic path.
Built on the Cohort Brain platform.
The term loan model doesn't live in isolation. It runs on the same governed OS as the rest of the business — enabling you to compare scenarios, record explicit assumptions, explain variance, and present defensible board outputs.
Explore the operating system →See your next portfolio decision
before you make it.
A focused working session on your portfolio — cards, BNPL, term loans, mortgages or deposits. No pitch deck. No sequence.